New EQUA Index reveals true pollutant emissions for car buyers

With Mitsubishi Motors the latest manufacturer to admit to impropriety in its testing procedures, the need for impartial real-world data has never been greater. Today Emissions Analytics is launching the new EQUA Index rating scheme to help bring transparency in the first instance to the issue of air quality.

The EQUA Air Quality Index is based on the level of emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in grams per kilometre emitted during our real-world tests. The Index aligns the boundaries between ratings values as much as possible with recognisable points. See below:

The EQUA Air Quality Index is intended to complement the forthcoming regulations for new vehicle certification, by monitoring vehicle performance when driven normally on roads; in effect keeping a watchful eye on the effectiveness of the new regulations.The problems with the existing test system, the NEDC, which have been the cause of so many of the issues covered by the media recently, are already being addressed by regulators in Europe. From 2017 the World Harmonised Light Duty Test Protocol (WLTP) will change the way CO2 is measured and Real Driving Emissions will address problems with NOx measurement.

The other great benefit of the EQUA Air Quality Index is to help car buyers. Designed to be clear and concise, the simple A to H rating allows manufacturers and retailers to show how different models compare in the showroom, whether diesel, petrol or hybrid. It is also ideal for car reviewers and publishers to include as new cars are reviewed. And because the scheme is independently financed and researched, consumers, companies and the wider automotive industry can have confidence in the impartiality of the data.

The EQUA Air Quality Index has been developed by Emissions Analytics in conjunction with a group of experts to guide, review the test and rating methodology, monitor the regulatory context, and provide input into the wider development of the index. The group includes:

The EQUA Air Quality Index has been developed by Emissions Analytics in conjunction with a group of experts to guide, review the test and rating methodology, monitor the regulatory context, and provide input into the wider development of the index. The group includes:

• Professor Helen ApSimon – Air Pollution Studies, Imperial College London, UK

• Dr Adam Boies – Department of Engineering, The University of Cambridge, UK

• John German – Senior Fellow, The International Council on Clean Transportation, USA

• Dr Marc Stettler – Centre for Transport Studies, Imperial College London, UK

• Professor Martin Williams – Air Quality Scientist, King’s College London, UK

There are almost 450 vehicles on the EQUA Air Quality Index now, so why not have a look?

Emissions Analytics to power Clean Vehicle Checker for London and Paris

• London and Paris to use on-road emissions data to improve air quality

• Emissions Analytics’ data to help inform consumer decisions in both cities

• EQUA Index launched today in France

 In a drive to improve urban air quality, the cities of London and Paris will launch an on-road emissions scoring tool for residents, using Emissions Analytics’ data. The partnership was announced at C40 Air’volution in Paris today as Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, and Paris Mayor, Anne Hidalgo, set out their joint plan to tackle poor air quality in both cities. Emissions Analytics has also launched its emissions database, the EQUA Index, in France today.

The Greater London Authority’s (GLA) online Clean Vehicle Checker will allow Londoners to identify the cleanest and worst-polluting new vehicles on sale. Launching in Autumn this year, the free-to-access tool will provide Londoners with on-road emissions data for nearly all new cars and vans. The Mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, has committed to offering a similar scoring scheme.

The move to offer car buyers information on real-world emissions data comes as authorities try to address the consequences of the official emission testing system, which has historically underestimated true ‘on road’ emissions. Emissions Analytics data shows that some new cars produce more than 12 times the legal NOx limit in the real world. While the introduction of official Real Driving Emissions (RDE) tests will help to address this, it is not set to come into full force until 2021, and vehicle manufacturers will still be allowed to exceed limits by up to 50%.

Nick Molden, CEO and founder of Emissions Analytics, said: “Both the Mayors of London and Paris have identified that vehicle emissions in the real world are a major contributor to the current air quality issue. This validates the work of Emissions Analytics, which has been recording on-road vehicle emissions for six years. We are delighted that both cities will be using our data to help inform consumer decisions.”

Emissions Analytics’ EQUA Index, which provides free-to-access data on vehicles’ fuel consumption and NOx, CO2 and CO emissions, has also been launched today in France. The EQUA Index will allow Europe’s third-largest new car market to better understand the emissions that their vehicles produce in real-world driving conditions for free, by going to fr.equaindex.com.

Independently financed and implemented, the EQUA Index is designed to help end the confusion that many consumers face when trying to understand the complex subject of fuel economy and tailpipe emissions, with ratings openly published and freely available to all.

Developed by Emissions Analytics, the EQUA Index is totally independent of car manufactures, trade associations and government. The EQUA Index is a scientific undertaking, providing highly accurate information, obtained though standardised and repeatable testing conducted on real roads.

Notes to Editors

Nick Molden, CEO and founder of Emissions Analytics, is available for interview and comment on the issues relating to real-world fuel economy data and vehicle emissions.

Notes to Editors

About Emissions Analytics

Emissions Analytics is a specialist in real-world, on-road vehicle emissions measurement and analysis, covering the European Union and the United States.

Its capabilities cover the measurement of regulated pollutants, including CO, CO2, NO, NO2, NOx, total hydrocarbons and particulate matter, using officially certified Portable Emissions Measurement Systems (PEMS).

Operating since 2011, it has carried out PEMS tests on more than 1400 model variants of passenger car in addition to testing heavy goods vehicles, tractors, taxis, vans and buses. It is the unrivalled expert in the field of on-road emissions monitoring.

Its bespoke services include benchmark tests, product evaluation and real-world running costs and it offers subscription access to its database of test results, as well as confidential testing services for product development and evaluation.

As experts in vehicle emissions and fuel consumption, Emissions Analytics supports a range of commercial and publicly funded organisations. It is currently in partnership with Imperial College, London, studying urban emissions for transport planning and policy.

Emissions Analytics is willing to provide journalists with sample data for specific vehicles upon request.

 About the EQUA Index

The EQUA Index is designed to evaluate the performance of individual passenger cars across the European Union in terms of fuel economy and tailpipe emissions under real-world driving conditions.  The scheme will assess cars using objective performance criteria, recognising the best performers in emission levels through the ratings awarded.

The on-going programme will be separate from, and independent of, vehicle manufacturers’ certification tests. The results will be publicly available, with the aim of influencing policy development and implementation, allowing consumers to make informed purchase decisions and demonstrating the improvements that vehicle manufacturers are making in fuel efficiency.

A technical reference document on the methodology is available on request.

The EQUA Index is owned, funded and operated by Emissions Analytics, which retains all rights associated with the results and ratings.

For more information, please contact:

Alex Michaelides (Torque): 020 7952 1078, amichaelides@torqueagencygroup.com

Matt Sanger (Torque): 020 7950 1079,

4x4s come clean in latest EQUA Air Quality NOX ratings

The EQUA Mpg gap increases further in 2016

This year’s round up of EQUA fuel economy data shows a five percentage point increase in the gap between official and real-world mpg, reaching 29% in 2016.

Official mpg figures averaged 60.7mpg in the year, the highest we have seen since we started recording in 2011. This is an increase of 9% on 2015’s figures, which stood at 55.7mpg; however, real-world mpg reached just 42.3mpg. On a like-for-like basis, this represents a 3% increase on 2015.

Air conditioning

With air conditioning now widely available in cars, in 2016 Emissions Analytics updated all its mpg results to include the effect of air conditioning on fuel economy. Results are now expressed to reflect manually adjusted air conditioning (not automatic climate control) switched on at 50% of maximum throughout the test. This increases fuel consumption typically by 4%.

Incorporating the use of air conditioning, the gap between official mpg figures and real-world EQUA Index Mpg has risen to 29% on average, with the largest gaps well exceeding 40%. This increases to 75% below the official figures for hybrid vehicles that have not had their battery charged and are running purely on the ICE.

Can regulatory change reduce the gap?

From 1 September this year the World harmonised Light duty vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) will be introduced to certify the carbon dioxide and fuel economy of cars. Work started on this around 2008 and was originally intended to be a worldwide certification standard. However, with the passing of significant time and the withdrawal of North America from the process, it has become less relevant.

It will still be an improvement on the existing type approval process, which incorporates the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC), largely due to the removal or restriction of loopholes in the procedure.  However, the test cycle itself is not much more representative of real-world driving, as it remains in the laboratory with no changes in elevation and still modest acceleration rates. Our prediction, also consistent with modelling from the International Council on Clean Transportation, is that the current mpg gap of 29% and the CO2 gap between official and real-world of around 40% will approximately halve. So, a significant gap will still remain.

Crucially, it has yet to be agreed when and in what way the WLTP results will be made available to consumers. In the meantime the EQUA Index is available for anyone wishing to find out the on-road fuel economy of both Euro 5 and Euro 6 vehicles.

Can hybrid electric vehicles beat diesels on mpg?

Hybrids have always had a miles-per-gallon advantage in urban driving but new EQUA Index data shows that they are gaining on diesels in motoway or highway driving and, if current trends persist, hybrid electric vehicles (excluding plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) are set to take the lead in 2017.

The dotted trend lines in the above graph, representing motorway mpg for diesel vehicles and gasoline hybrids tested by Emissions Analytics, are converging. While the downturn in diesel mpg may be due to a change in manufacturers’ focus from fuel economy to NOx emissions, what is more striking is the improvement in gasoline hybrid performance on the motorway as a result of technological advances.

The step change in technology is even more noticeable when European EQUA data is compared to North American EQUA results. The graph below shows gasoline hybrid performance in the US is particularly impressive on our combined cycles. With this level of fuel economy it seems unlikely that diesel vehicles will ever make a significant impact on market share in the US. With the mpg penalty of some NOx aftertreatment systems, perhaps it was to gain a fuel advantage over hybrids that Volkswagen resorted to using a defeat device when bringing their diesel models to the US market.

Another noticeable effect of the different product mix in the US is the level of carbon monoxide emissions. Both regular gasoline cars and gasoline hybrids have much lower CO emissions than their European equivalents, with regular gasolines 30% lower and gasoline hybrids 64% lower. This is despite the fact that the US have a less strict limit, at 2.1g/km, than the EU’s, 1.0g/km limit.

When we last wrote about hybrid vehicles back in October 2014, we concluded they were delivering “good but not best-in-class fuel economy, but [were] typically the cleanest, and if you are a light-footed, congested town driver, they are ideal.” Two years on hybrids, particularly in the US, have really upped their game. They are still a cleaner drive than a diesel and may soon offer better fuel economy wherever you drive them but heavy-footed drivers should still exercise caution.

Are diesels done for?

As the government loses a second high court ruling brought by ClientEarth, many are now sounding the death knell for diesel cars. Not so fast, says Emissions Analytics, diesels can be clean and govenments are highly unlikely to give up the greenhouse gas advantage of diesel in the short- or medium-term.
Since the introduction of Euro 6 in September 2014, manufacturers have been forced to improve their after-treatment systems to meet the stricter legislated limits for NOx. Exhaust Gas Recirculation, Lean NOx Traps, and Selective Catalytic Reduction technologies have been employed as part of a complex strategy to reduce tailpipe emissions. There have been variable successes, with some achieving the regulated limits even in real-world driving and the worst more than 20 times the legal limit. Overall, average NOx emissions from Euro 6 diesels are down 55% compared to Euro 5s.

Nonetheless, there is still the fact that many new cars do not meet the legislated limits in real-world operation. Our data shows NOx emissions are on average 4.3 times over the limit for Euro 6 cars and, after a period of improvement, this Conformity Factor is rising. This is the heart of the issue, as to whether diesels are the major and unavoidable cause of poor air quality in towns and cities.

Consequently, there have been many suggestions made to combat the problem of dirty diesels. These range from the London Mayor’s T-charge, to a diesel scrappage scheme, to a total ban on diesel vehicles in certain zones. However, Emissions Analytics’ data shows that modern diesels in their own right can be clean.

Since the launch of the EQUA Air Quality Index six months ago, twelve cars have how achieved an A-rating including the latest Volkswagen Tiguan, meaning it has met the 0.08g/km limit in real-world driving.

This proves that diesels can be clean and the reason most are not is down to a failure of regulation and enforcement and not the technical impossibility.

There is also the issue of CO2 emissions to be considered. Despite Donald Trump tweeting that climate change was, “created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive,” the British government has an empirical view on global warming and stands by its commitment to cutting its carbon footprint. Would ministers give away the 16% CO2 advantage – according to Emissions Analytics’ testing – diesel has over gasoline for the same distance driven in real-world operation, until there is a viable alternative.

In the future electric and hybrid vehicles may deliver the CO2 advantage required, as well as greatly reducing, or eliminating, NOx and other harmful emissions, at which point diesel powered engines for passenger cars may come to the end of the road. However, with a share of the market of less than 2%, there is still a way to go for these vehicles. Until then, Emissions Analytics’ data strongly suggests the policy focus should be on sorting the clean from the dirty diesels and incentivising manufacturers to bring forward clean technology.

The latest EQUA Aq Index results are available online

Emissions Analytics’ new EQUA Carbon Dioxide Index reveals car manufacturers miss target by 39%

VW Tiguan makes the grade in EQUA Air Quality Index while others flounder

Emissions Analytics launches EQUA Carbon Monoxide Index

Emissions Analytics is pleased to announce the launch of the EQUA CO Index. The second in the EQUA Index series, EQUA CO looks at whether carbon monoxide regulations are being achieved in real-world operation.

Potentially fatal for humans as well as damaging to the environment, carbon monoxide is generally considered a problem primarily confined to gasoline vehicles. Regulations distinguish between the fuel types, with diesels having a more stringent but, due to their technology, easier to achieve limit of 0.5g/km. Gasoline vehicles have to meet a more generous 1.0g/km limit which is typically achieved using a three-way catalyst. Therefore, the regulations are not technology neutral and allow gasoline vehicles to emit twice that of diesels and still be compliant.

In the same way that Emissions Analytics rates emissions of NOx from diesels, gasolines and hybrids with a single scale on the EQUA Aq Index, the EQUA CO Index awards a universal rating regardless of fuel type. Thus despite the regulations setting different boundaries, the EQUA CO Index allows comparisons between vehicles. The A++ to H ratings are set as follows:

Using these classes, a diesel car awarded an A to A++ meets the regulated level even in real-world driving, whereas a gasoline vehicle with a C to A++ meets the regulated levels for this fuel.

Of the 734 vehicles currently on the EQUA CO Index, 96% emit the regulated amount of CO or less. However, there are some interesting exceptions. Several Mercedes C-Class diesels are over 0.5g/km, out of a small number over the limit. Additionally, 8% of gasoline vehicles, that is 24 models tested by Emissions Analytics, do not meet the regulated limit, with one outlier being more than six times over. If the regulations were to change and gasolines had to achieve the same, stricter standard as diesels, the number of cars failing to reach this standard would increase to 20%. Of the hybrid vehicles tested, all achieve the regulated limit apart from the Mitsubishi Outlander which scored a D-rating when not running on its electric engine.

The vehicles tested by Emissions Analytics are all  run on our standard real-world cycle. The tests are conducted by a small pool of highly trained technicians and the vehicle and testing equipment is carefully prepared to make sure it is fully warmed up and in the manufacturers’ default settings.

The data shows that illegal levels of carbon monoxide are not as prevalent in real-world driving as excess NOx from diesels. However, given the toxicity of CO, this is a situation that needs to be monitored. This could become particularly relevant if there is a market shift away from diesel towards gasoline as a result of dieselgate and other emerging regulations and taxes. Emissions Analytics will continue to keep a watchful eye on on-road vehicle performance, checking it against official certification and publishing the results online on the Carbon Monoxide page at the EQUA Index site.

Subscriptions are available to the Emissions Analytics database. Contact us for details.

Downsized and supersized engines hit A grade in EQUA Air Quality Index

Emissions Analytics delivers big data to ENTRIS in definitive HGV emissions tests

EQUA Air Quality Index – Release

EQUA Air Quality Index – General QA

EQUA Air Quality Index – Technical QA

New EQUA Index reveals true pollutant emissions for car buyers

With Mitsubishi Motors the latest manufacturer to admit to impropriety in its testing procedures, the need for impartial real-world data has never been greater. Today Emissions Analytics is launching the new EQUA Index rating scheme to help bring transparency in the first instance to the issue of air quality.

The EQUA Air Quality Index is based on the level of emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in grams per kilometre emitted during our real-world tests. The Index aligns the boundaries between ratings values as much as possible with recognisable points. See below:

The EQUA Air Quality Index is intended to complement the forthcoming regulations for new vehicle certification, by monitoring vehicle performance when driven normally on roads; in effect keeping a watchful eye on the effectiveness of the new regulations.The problems with the existing test system, the NEDC, which have been the cause of so many of the issues covered by the media recently, are already being addressed by regulators in Europe. From 2017 the World Harmonised Light Duty Test Protocol (WLTP) will change the way CO2 is measured and Real Driving Emissions will address problems with NOx measurement.

The other great benefit of the EQUA Air Quality Index is to help car buyers. Designed to be clear and concise, the simple A to H rating allows manufacturers and retailers to show how different models compare in the showroom, whether diesel, petrol or hybrid. It is also ideal for car reviewers and publishers to include as new cars are reviewed. And because the scheme is independently financed and researched, consumers, companies and the wider automotive industry can have confidence in the impartiality of the data.

The EQUA Air Quality Index has been developed by Emissions Analytics in conjunction with a group of experts to guide, review the test and rating methodology, monitor the regulatory context, and provide input into the wider development of the index. The group includes:

• Professor Helen ApSimon – Air Pollution Studies, Imperial College London, UK

• Dr Adam Boies – Department of Engineering, The University of Cambridge, UK

• John German – Senior Fellow, The International Council on Clean Transportation, USA

• Dr Marc Stettler – Centre for Transport Studies, Imperial College London, UK

• Professor Martin Williams – Air Quality Scientist, King’s College London, UK

There are almost 450 vehicles on the EQUA Air Quality Index now, so why not have a look?

Do a PhD with King’s College London and Emissions Analytics

Characterising non-road mobile machinery emissions through portable emissions testing and emissions inventory development

An exciting opportunity exists to investigate the emissions from vehicles and generators on construction sites working with academic, industry and government partners to deliver a scientifically ground breaking and policy relevant PhD. Current emissions inventories estimate that Non-Road Mobile Machinery (NRMM) contributes approximately 10% of the NOX and PM10 emissions within London. However, there is a large uncertainty in this estimate as very few real-world emission measurements have been made of these sources, instead relying on engine test beds and activity estimates have been based on simplified assessments of construction activity. This project aims to address both of these aspects by undertaking state-of-the-art Portable Emissions Measurement System (PEMS) tests on NRMM machinery and utilising the latest information available through London’s NRMM register to assess the fleet activity. An opportunity also exists to test innovative emissions abatement solutions to provide policy-relevant scenario testing for emissions abatement.

For full details about the project, please visit http://www.kcl.ac.uk/health/study/studentships/div-studentships/aes/green.aspx

Has fuel economy started to fall?

Average fuel economy has fallen for the first time since Emissions Analytics began its real-world test programme in 2011. Not only that but the ‘gap’ between official figures and our results did not widen last year. The reason for this appears to be intrinsically linked to the introduction of the Euro 6 emissions standards. This newsletter looks to explain what our data is showing and what this means for fuel economy and CO2 targets in the future.

Evident in our recently published infographic, pictured above, fuel economy has dropped by 3.3 mpg in 2015 and the ‘gap’ has shrunk slightly from 21.5% in 2014 to 21.3% in 2015.

The explanation for this change is due to two main factors, around the mix of vehicles tested and the typical performance of the latest diesel engines.  As Emissions Analytics tests vehicles around the time they are launched, there is inevitable fluctuation in the types tested, and hence the mix.  This was made more notable with the introduction of the Euro 6 emissions regulations for all new vehicles sold from September 2015.

In the run-up to this deadline, the last of the Euro 5 vehicles had a strong bias towards larger, more powerful vehicles, with lower fuel economy.  Perhaps manufacturers were concentrating on releasing the Euro 6 versions of their high volume models first, leaving compliance for the lower-selling or harder-to-comply models until the end of the Euro 5 window.

At the same time as this mix effect, 2015 also saw a reduction in the average fuel economy of the Euro 6 diesel cars tested.  These were on average 5.4% less fuel efficient than the Euro 6 diesels tested in 2014. This is likely to be due to some combination of the mix of makes and models launched and in many cases the additional fuel requirement of the NOx abatement systems.  In contrast, Euro 6 petrol vehicles tested in 2015 saw a 5.8% improvement in fuel economy compared to those tested in 2014 – these vehicles did not have extra NOx after-treatment systems.

This led us to look at whether the conformity factor (ratio of emissions in real-world driving to the regulated emissions level) for Euro 6 NOx was improving over time and what we found was:

Year          Conformity Factor
2013          6.7
2014          2.7
2015          3.5

In 2013 we tested just five Euro 6 models, all early adopters of the new technology, which had showed a high average NOx conformity factor, and also a wide spread. In 2014, it appears that well-placed manufacturers brought mainstream Euro 6 models to market with low  conformity factors averaging just 2.7. By 1 September 2015, all models had to be Euro 6 compliant, so included model less well optimised after-treatment systems, perhaps driving the average conformity factor back up.

What can also be seen, however, is that the recently upheld Real Driving Emissions NOx Conformity Factor of 2.1 from 2017 is readily achievable for many, with 29% of models already meeting this level in real-world driving, according to Emissions Analytics’ database.

Cargo weighs heavily for some LCVs

You may remember back in February we announced we were going to extend our test programme to include light commercial vehicles. Well, testing has been underway for the last few months and we have found that fuel economy and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions vary considerably depending on whether or not vehicles are fully laden.  Our sample is currently small, but we wanted to share some early results.

A van used for work is rarely empty so unlike the official tests, our cycle is repeated twice, first empty and then again at 100% payload. We have tested a number of the most popular Euro 5 vans on the road today and the average impact on fuel economy and NOx by manufacturer when driven fully laden can be seen on the graph below.

Across all vans we have tested, NOx levels are 5.9 times the Euro 5 limit of 180 mg/km when tested empty on our real-world route. Fill these vehicles to 100% of their individual payloads and this ‘exceedance factor’ increases to 12.2 times the legislated limit. However, the impact of load varies from vehicle to vehicle. For instance, Volkswagen produces the cleanest van for NOxwhen empty and despite a 225% increase when full, this vehicle is still the cleanest we have seen. The Ford vans, on the other hand, are higher than the Volkswagen unladen (7.1 times the limit) but this barely increases when full (to 7.6 times), leaving them only marginally more emitting than the Volkswagen.

Fuel economy

Like passenger cars, vans deliver a worse fuel economy on the road than during the official NEDC cycle. The average for the vans we have tested is 14% below official MPG figures when tested empty. Fill them up and the average MPG drops to 27% below the NEDC figures. Just like NOx , there is variability between different models. So far, the Renault gets closest of all the vans tested to its official MPG result (2% below), but suffers badly when laden, dropping a further 13%, whereas load has the smallest impact on the Citroen with a 5% penalty.

It is also interesting to note that there is very little variance between urban and extra-urban driving, for example at 50% load.  Typically, unladen, extra-urban MPG would be higher than urban, but the increase in rolling resistance means than on average we found MPG at the higher speeds was 2% lower than in urban driving.

Our programme of van testing is on-going and will grow in 2016.  The data so far shows – potentially even more so than for cars – that it is vital to match the right van to the right usage.  There are very different characteristic performances between the vans tested so far, making the best purchase decision highly dependent on whether it will be used mainly for urban delivery driving, long distance trunking or carrying heaving loads.

Real Driving Emissions – How REAL is it?

With the recent Volkswagen scandal focussing the world’s attention on the air quality problems associated with diesel cars, campaigners for clean air have expressed dismay over the EU’s decision not to impose stricter rules for testing new cars on the road. However, Emissions Analytics data shows that full compliance with the Euro 6 limits on oxides of nitrogen (NOx) is already being achieved by some vehicles, and thinks that the industry is on course to clean up dirty diesels.

What is interesting to note from the graph below is that of the 400+ vehicles tested by Emissions Analytics, only one Euro 5 car met the Euro 5 NOx limit, whereas four Euro 6 vehicles have already met the more challenging 0.08g/km Euro 6 regulation. The spread of NOx levels has also reduced in absolute terms with Euro 6, although proportionately the spread is similar to the Euro 5s before them. It is also abundantly clear that the majority of cars we have tested have failed to meet the regulations in real-world driving, with the average NOx levels four times more than they were certified as emitting.

The introduction of a Real Driving Emissions test (RDE) is set to reduce this divergence between laboratory results and real-world driving. Yet the announcement of the Conformity Factors last week, which set the levels of NOx vehicles are permitted to achieve during RDE, have been criticised by many as being too lenient. Our data shows that 36% of Euro 6 diesels have already met the 0.168g/km implied by the 0.08g/km limit plus the Conformity Factor of 2.1 that will come in from 2017 onwards and apply until 2020/1. However, taking into account the test-to-test variability with portable testing, which the Joint Research Centre of the EU recently estimated at up to 30%, manufacturers will need aim for emissions below the 0.168g/km to avoid being caught out during the RDE test. Using that variability number would suggest manufacturers will need to target 0.129g/km. This means that the 0.08g/km limit will be exceeded by around 60% on average in real-world driving. Of the Euro 6 diesels we have tested, 29% already meet this limit, as well as all gasoline cars.

Finally, all models will not need to comply until September 2019, and therefore we conclude that the new regulations as currently proposed will prove easier to achieve than might have been expected, even though some manufacturers and models have a greater task than others. As ever, we will be monitoring the situation and will report back with an update soon.

Consumers being mislead on emissions – with or without illegal acts

We set up Emissions Analytics four years ago to understand the differences in emissions and fuel economy between the laboratory test and real-world driving conditions in Europe and the United States.  Over that time, Emissions Analytics has tested over 1000 cars in Europe and the United States, including over 200 European diesel passenger cars, and makes this data commercially available to many parts of the automotive industry to help bring about a better regulatory regime and help rebuild trust between car manufacturers and consumers.

The illegal action of one manufacturer in the United States threw light, in dramatic fashion last week, on a European situation of higher than expected real-world emissions generated wholly or largely through legal activities.  Even legal activity, where it gives rise to misleading results, can be enough to cast wrongful doubt on a whole industry.  Having robust, independent real-world emissions data that can sort good from bad is the future, and we plan to lead this.

To summarise the facts in the European market, we have found that real-world emissions of the regulated nitrogen oxides are four times above the official level, determined in the laboratory.  Real-world emissions of carbon dioxide are almost one-third above that suggested by official figures.  For car buyers, this means that fuel economy on average is one quarter worse than advertised.  This matters, even if no illegal activity is found.  These differences may well be explained by limitations in the official system, rather than through illegality.

Emissions Analytics has been highlighting these issues for some years now, along with many partners who have analysed our results as well as similar data from other sources.  In order to make our findings more accessible and useable to the market, we will be launching an independent accreditation initiative, and we invite all interested parties to participate.