Hybrids are 14 times better than battery electric vehicles at reducing real-world carbon dioxide emissions

Why a multi-pronged approach to electrification is needed

Battery production capacity for motor vehicles is currently scarce, expensive and suffering supply lags and challenges.  This may change over time, but for some period securing an economic supply of battery production capacity will be pivotal to the successful commercialisation of electrified vehicles, and to the relative fortunes of individual auto makers.  At the same time, electrification is a proven route to tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction, or elimination.  Therefore, the efficient deployment of available battery capacity between competing applications is critical to maximising fleet CO2 reduction.  

So long as this scarcity remains, a major concern is that the push to pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will crowd out a more effective programme of mass hybridisation.  Put another way, given the urgency of the need to reduce CO2, paradoxically BEVs may not be the best way to achieve it with their supply chain, production capacity, infrastructure and customer acceptance challenges.  The assertion that BEVs are required to solve air quality problems is confusing the argument – cities in Europe can be brought into compliance with conventional internal combustion engines, with technology on the market today.  Electrification is first and foremost a CO2 reduction technology, but what strategy mix represents the correct path?

This newsletter is inspired by recent insightful articles by Kevin Brown: https://bit.ly/30j50Ed and https://bit.ly/30oC1yM.  His insights on the efficiency of carbon reduction can be put together with the Emissions Analytics’ database of real-world testing over almost 100 hybrids vehicles to see in more detail the most efficient options for electrification and CO2 reduction.

As with tailpipe pollutant reduction, CO2 reduction comes down to how to achieve it as cost-efficiently and quickly as possible.  Emissions fell during the financial crisis, but at the significant price of sharply reduced economic activity – not desirable.  So, how best to deliver road transportation’s part in meeting the Paris climate change targets?  The apparent consensus is to transition to pure electric vehicles as rapidly as possible.  But is this singular focus better than a combined strategy employing a wide variety of hybrid electric vehicles?

The problem with the pure electric vehicle approach is that the transition will be slow, BEVs need disproportionately large batteries to give acceptable consumer utility, just as battery capacity is currently a scarce resource.  As cumulative CO2 emissions are important for climate change – due to the long life of the gas in the atmosphere – a smaller reduction per vehicle now, but across many more hybrid vehicles, would eliminate a far greater volume of CO2 than applying the scarce battery resource to a smaller number of BEVs.  This approach also helps mitigate naturally slow fleet turnover, with the average age of cars on the road being over twelve years.

So, what does the real-world performance data of hybrids look like?

The following analysis takes the mild, full and plug-in hybrid vehicles tested by Emissions Analytics in both Europe and the United States.  Each hybrid is paired with its nearest equivalent internal-combustion-engine-only vehicle, often the same make and model with a similar engine size.  The difference in average CO2 emissions over Emissions Analytics’ standard on-road cycle between the hybrid and its conventional-engined pair is then calculated.  

The first table focuses on mild and full hybrids, excluding plug-ins, and shows the average tailpipe CO2 reductions that are achievable with models that are currently on the market, or that have been sold over the last seven years since Emissions Analytics started its test programme.

The average US reduction is larger than in Europe due to the typically higher CO2 emissions starting point of US vehicles, and often the latest hybrid technology is launched in the US market earlier.  Of these 95 hybrids, five are diesels. 

To put this 30% reduction in context, the EU’s post-2021 CO2 reduction target for passenger cars is 37.5% by 2030.  Therefore, widespread non-plug-in hybridisation with currently available technology would achieve over three-quarters of that target.  Moreover, with fourth generation hybrids now entering the market, the benefits of hybrids will improve further, as illustrated at https://bit.ly/2KhDlhh.  Together with plug-in hybridisation and other design innovations, it is plausible that the target could be met without the need for full electric vehicles.

The results from the first table are then combined with results from plug-in hybrids and a representative BEV, with the difference in CO2 being divided by the battery size of the electrified vehicle.  The result measures the efficiency of CO2 reduction in return for the deployment of the scarce battery resource.  The results are shown below, with three different illustrative scenarios for plug-ins depending on varying battery utilisation.

* Typical battery size across models currently on the market.  The CO2 reduction from BEVs is based on switching from an average internal combustion engine emissions to a zero-emissions BEV.

The table above shows that mild hybrids are clearly the most efficient method of CO2 reduction, followed by full hybrids, given scarce battery production capacity.  Plug-in hybrids are the next most effective after that, but only if they are operated entirely on battery, which is hard to enforce in practice.  BEVs have the lowest efficiency, primarily due to requiring disproportionately large batteries to accommodate relatively infrequent, extreme usage cases where the driver will otherwise suffer range anxiety.

This analysis ignores the upstream CO2 in fuel extraction, refining and transportation, as well as in the production and distribution of electricity.  Some studies suggest the upstream CO2 of the electricity is greater than for gasoline, but the relative efficiency calculations here implicitly assume they are equal.

Showing the distribution of performance by individual model, the chart below relates the efficiency of CO2 reduction by battery size.  Mild and full hybrids are the most efficient on average, but there is significant variation within the class – demonstrating that individual vehicle selection remains at least as important as generic powertrain.  The same chart also demonstrates the advantage in CO2 reduction that the US currently holds.

In terms of the trajectory to total CO2 reduction, a transition from gasoline internal combustion engine to full gasoline hybrid can reduce emissions by 34%.  As it will take time to increase the supply of full hybrids, there are two routes to short-term CO2 reduction that are viable more quickly.  First, a switch from gasoline to diesel internal combustion engine in practice reduces CO2 emissions by 11% at the tailpipe.  A second step then to a diesel mild hybrid delivers a further 6% reduction.  The final swap to full hybrid delivers another 16%, making 34% in total.  Alternatively, a direct switch from gasoline to gasoline mild hybrid can deliver 11%, followed by a further 23% in moving to full hybrid.  Therefore, there are immediate-term options for significant CO2 reduction, involving both gasoline and diesel powertrains – the former more suitable in the European market, the latter in the US due to the current mix of fuel utilisation.

It is at any regulatory stages beyond the 37.5% fleet reduction that fuller electrification would be required, as there are limits to the total CO2 reduction that hybrids can deliver.  However, by 2030 the EU and US would have had more time to develop expanded, cleaner electricity generation capacity, enhanced distribution grid, and addressed the supply chain issues around the scarce materials in batteries.  Not neglecting also that consumer education and acceptance are required to remove barriers to adoption.  An alternative scenario by 2030 is that the availability and price of renewable electricity may have fallen to a level at which hydrogen fuel cell vehicles become economic viable, which avoid some of the environmental and geopolitical issues created by largescale battery production.

In summary, this data strongly suggests that policy unilaterally favouring one technology solution may be deeply inefficient and perhaps even the wrong eventual solution.  A better approach would be to use real-world data to allow competing technologies to flourish as they can evidence genuine CO2 reductions, delivered as soon as possible.

Electric vehicles now rated by EQUA Index – Tesla 3 result.

Electric vehicles have no tailpipe emissions – obviously.  They do have indirect emissions from upstream manufacturing, and in-use emissions from tyre and brake wear, but it is range and efficiency which are of direct practical importance to owners.
 
As range anxiety diminishes with larger batteries, the relative efficiency of EVs will become more important in choosing the best vehicle.  More challenging, for car buyers, is weighing the advantages and disadvantages of EVs against traditional powertrains, as they decide whether to switch.  As a result, Emissions Analytics has extended its EQUA Index programme to test these new powertrains in a comparable way, with our partners Motor Trend (www.motortrend.com/real-mpg).
 
Recently, we put the Tesla 3 through the standard EQUA Real Mpg fuel economy test in the California, which is the same test we put internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrids through. The Tesla performed well, achieving efficiency of 3.1 miles per kWh. While there is no ideal way to convert this to a miles-per-gallon equivalent, if the kWh are converted to gallons based on relative energy content, this makes 103.7 (US) mpg, 124.5 (Imperial) mpg or 2.27 litres per 100 km.

This was a good performance, but not best-in-class. The 2017 Chevrolet Bolt we tested achieved 122.2 US mpg and the 2017 Hyundai Ioniq EV reached an impressive 151.8 mpg.
 
This is significant because it shows that the electric vehicle market is not just dominated by one player, but there are now a number of rival vehicles, with varying performance – information the consumer should have when making a purchase decision.  Emissions Analytics’ EQUA Real Mpg data for the US market can be found at usa.equaindex.com, and the equivalent European data at www.equaindex.com. 

At the same time as these developments, behind the scenes, Emissions Analytics has initiated a process to formalise its methods and evolve it to be relevant for testing the latest vehicles, including European diesels under Real Driving Emissions and EVs. In November, the inaugural workshop of this "CEN" process was held in Brussels. CEN, or Comité Européen de Normalisation, is a framework for standardisation of products and techniques across the European Union.  After a period of open scrutiny and discussion, the testing methodology could become an official voluntary standard, for any organisation to use.
 
Emissions Analytics is undertaking this as part of its commitment to the recently-launched not-for-profit global alliance called “Allow Independent Road-testing” or AIR (www.allowair.org). As part of this, we want to open up our methodology to third parties to conduct consistent tests, in order to grow the global database of comparable results. 

AIR is a separate entity from Emissions Analytics and structured as an alliance allowing like-minded organisations to sign up to the principles of independent testing and labelling. Any organisation interested in finding out more about the objectives and opportunities for membership, should contact Massimo Fedeli at mdefeli@allowair.org.
 
The link between these two recent events is that the ever-growing complexity of car choices needs an accurate, fair, trustworthy standard for measuring efficiency and emissions. Consumer trust must be rebuilt and cities need good tools to meet the air quality goals.

Can hybrid electric vehicles beat diesels on mpg?

Hybrids have always had a miles-per-gallon advantage in urban driving but new EQUA Index data shows that they are gaining on diesels in motoway or highway driving and, if current trends persist, hybrid electric vehicles (excluding plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) are set to take the lead in 2017.

The dotted trend lines in the above graph, representing motorway mpg for diesel vehicles and gasoline hybrids tested by Emissions Analytics, are converging. While the downturn in diesel mpg may be due to a change in manufacturers’ focus from fuel economy to NOx emissions, what is more striking is the improvement in gasoline hybrid performance on the motorway as a result of technological advances.

The step change in technology is even more noticeable when European EQUA data is compared to North American EQUA results. The graph below shows gasoline hybrid performance in the US is particularly impressive on our combined cycles. With this level of fuel economy it seems unlikely that diesel vehicles will ever make a significant impact on market share in the US. With the mpg penalty of some NOx aftertreatment systems, perhaps it was to gain a fuel advantage over hybrids that Volkswagen resorted to using a defeat device when bringing their diesel models to the US market.

Another noticeable effect of the different product mix in the US is the level of carbon monoxide emissions. Both regular gasoline cars and gasoline hybrids have much lower CO emissions than their European equivalents, with regular gasolines 30% lower and gasoline hybrids 64% lower. This is despite the fact that the US have a less strict limit, at 2.1g/km, than the EU’s, 1.0g/km limit.

When we last wrote about hybrid vehicles back in October 2014, we concluded they were delivering “good but not best-in-class fuel economy, but [were] typically the cleanest, and if you are a light-footed, congested town driver, they are ideal.” Two years on hybrids, particularly in the US, have really upped their game. They are still a cleaner drive than a diesel and may soon offer better fuel economy wherever you drive them but heavy-footed drivers should still exercise caution.

Round up of average fuel economy for 2015

Motor Trend: The world’s two most efficient internal combustion cars

Real-world testing of hybrids in California read more

Hybrid efficiency put to the test

Despite common perception, the advantage of hybrids over frugal diesels is often illusory, if judged solely on fuel economy. Having tested over 30 hybrids in the UK and US, Emissions Analytics is able to analyse the data to understand how they really perform.

To illustrate the point we have taken a sample of 10 vehicles tested since 2013 – two standard hybrids versus 8 diesels – from the real-world fuel economy testing we conduct with What Car? in the UK. Each has an engines in the 1.5 to 2.2 litre range, power up to 150bhp, two-wheel drive and with hatchback, saloon or estate body style. The table shows the sample, ranked by fuel economy with the best MPG at the top:

While hybrids deliver good fuel economy in real driving, they can be eclipsed by up to 10mpg by some non-hybrid diesels. And that is after having taken into account any net changes in battery charge levels, to ensure that the hybrids are not penalised over our cycle. For certain driving patterns however, hybrids may still be the better option. Over our complete dataset of more than 500 vehicles in the UK, we can quantify how average MPG changes under congestion and aggressive and fast driving.

What this data shows is that hybrids suffer much less than their ICE equivalents under congested urban driving: on average a 3% penalty compared to 7%. In contrast, by doubling the average rate of acceleration the MPG falls by more for hybrids, especially diesel hybrids.

Comparing motorway driving to town driving, all types of vehicle show better MPG on the former, but the difference between hybrids and ICE vehicles is dramatic – typically because the downsized engines found in the hybrids are less suited for high speed motorway cruising.

Even more than their tolerance of congestion, the value of hybrids may be in their pollutant emissions, as even the cleanest diesels typically exceed the regulated values of NOx. In a recent report by the International Council on Clean Transportation, which analysed data from Emissions Analytics, the average exceedance was seven times for the latest Euro 6 diesel cars.

This compares to petrols, which generally meet the regulated NOx standards, even in real-world driving. Carbon monoxide is higher for the petrols, but again within the regulated values. Therefore, petrol hybrids have the benefit over ICE diesels in their effect on air quality, made even better as a proportion of urban driving will be on battery, with zero emissions. Although not included here, plug-in hybrids can show this pattern even more strongly.

In summary, hybrids deliver good but not best-in-class fuel economy, but they are typically the cleanest, and if you are a light-footed, congested town driver, they are ideal.